December Pending Home Sales Index
A shortage of homes for sale drive down pending home sales in December; share of distressed sales increase after months of decline, C.A.R. reports
LOS ANGELES, CA – January 24, 2013 – (RealEstateRama) — Seasonal factors, combined with low housing inventory, particularly a lack of real estate-owned homes (REOs), drove California pending home sales lower in December, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today. However, the share of distressed properties increased in December, as lenders pushed to close short sales and move them off their balance sheets.
Pending home sales data:
C.A.R.’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* fell 20.5 percent from a revised 103.5 in November to 82.3 in December, based on signed contracts. Pending sales were down 6.5 percent from the 88.1 index recorded in December 2011. Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, providing information on the future direction of the market.
Distressed housing market data:
- The share of equity sales – or non-distressed property sales – compared with total sales decreased for the first time in 11 months. The share of equity sales in December decreased to 63.6 percent, down from 64.9 percent in November. Equity sales were still higher than December 2011’s share of 48.4 percent.
- After falling steadily for the past several months, the combined share of all distressed property sales rose to 36.4 percent in December, up from 35.1 percent in November but down from 51.6 percent in December 2011.
- Of the distressed properties, the share of short sales was 25 percent in December, up from 23.4 percent in November and from 24 percent a year ago.
- The share of REO sales dipped to 11 percent in December from 11.3 percent in November and was down from 27.2 percent in December 2011.
- The available supply of REOs dipped in December, with the Unsold Inventory Index for REOs declining from 2.1 months in November to 1.9 months in December. The December Unsold Inventory Index was 2.7 months for equity sales and 2.4 months for short sales.
Charts:
- Pending sales compared with closed sales.
- Historical trend in the share of equity sales compared with distressed sales.
- Closed housing sales in December by sales type (equity, distressed).
- Housing supply of REOs, short sales, and equity sales in December.
- A historical trend of REO, short sale, and equity sales housing supply.
- Year to year change in sales by property type.
Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales
(Single-family)
| Type of Sale | Dec. 2012 | Nov. 2012 | Dec. 2011 |
| Equity Sales | 63.6% | 64.9% | 48.4% |
| Total Distressed Sales | 36.4% | 35.1% | 51.6% |
| REOs | 11.0% | 11.3% | 27.2% |
| Short Sales | 25.0% | 23.4% | 24.0% |
| Other Distressed Sales (Not Specified) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| All Sales | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Single-family Distressed Home Sales by Select Counties
(Percent of total sales)
| County | Dec. 2012 | Nov. 2012 | Dec. 2011 |
| Alameda | 26% | 25% | NA |
| Amador | 37% | 33% | 48% |
| Butte | 28% | 37% | 51% |
| Contra Costa | 29% | 29% | NA |
| El Dorado | 37% | 38% | 58% |
| Fresno | 52% | 50% | 59% |
| Humboldt | 29% | 19% | 29% |
| Kern | 39% | 41% | 64% |
| Kings | 49% | 45% | NA |
| Lake | 45% | 49% | 63% |
| Los Angeles | 35% | 33% | 49% |
| Madera | 74% | 58% | 80% |
| Marin | 20% | 22% | 37% |
| Mendocino | 39% | 36% | 45% |
| Merced | 51% | 52% | 64% |
| Monterey | 45% | 48% | 56% |
| Napa | 39% | 32% | 49% |
| Orange | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Placer | 47% | 35% | 53% |
| Riverside | 48% | 51% | 63% |
| Sacramento | 51% | 47% | 64% |
| San Benito | 50% | 29% | 75% |
| San Bernardino | 44% | 44% | 67% |
| San Diego | 13% | 13% | 28% |
| San Joaquin | 53% | 51% | 66% |
| San Luis Obispo | 26% | 25% | 48% |
| San Mateo | 20% | 17% | 28% |
| Santa Clara | 19% | 19% | 37% |
| Santa Cruz | 34% | 31% | 41% |
| Siskiyou | 44% | 43% | 54% |
| Solano | 58% | 55% | 70% |
| Sonoma | 37% | 39% | 51% |
| Stanislaus | 53% | 50% | 68% |
| Tehama | 50% | 55% | 54% |
| Tulare | 40% | 47% | NA |
| Yolo | 44% | 47% | 64% |
| California | 36% | 35% | 52% |
**Note: C.A.R.’s pending sales information is generated from a survey of more than 70 associations of REALTORS® and MLSs throughout the state. Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, offering solid information on future changes in the direction of the market. A sale is listed as pending after a seller has accepted a sales contract on a property. The majority of pending home sales usually becomes closed sales transactions one to two months later. The year 2008 was used as the benchmark for the Pending Homes Sales Index. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2008.
Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 100 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 155,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.
