California housing market loses momentum in November as new loan disclosure rules delay closings, C.A.R. reports
– Existing, single-family home sales totaled 369,680 in November on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 8.4 percent from October and down 1.6 percent from November 2014.
– Statewide sales were below the 400,000 mark for the first time in eight months.
– November’s statewide median home price was $475,000, down 0.2 percent from October and up 6.8 percent from November 2014.
LOS ANGELES – December 17, 2015 – (RealEstateRama) — California existing home sales fell in November from both the previous month and year for the first time in nearly a year as low housing affordability extended into Southern California, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.
Home sales posted below the 400,000 level in November for the first time since March 2015 and were at the lowest level since February 2015. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 369,680 units in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2015 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The November figure was down 8.4 percent from the revised 403,580 level in October and down 1.6 percent compared with home sales in November 2014 of a revised 375,740. The year-to-year decrease was the first since January 2015 and was significantly below the six-month average of 8.3 percent observed between May 2015 and October 2015.
“The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Know Before You Owe TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure, or TRID, which was implemented in early October, may have affected home sales in the last couple of months,” said C.A.R. President Ziggy Zicarelli. “Some sales may have been either pulled forward into September to beat TRID’s effective date or been delayed. The impact, however, should be transitory as the roll-out and implementation process move further along.”
The median price of an existing, single-family detached California home dipped 0.2 percent in November to $475,000 from $475,990 in October. November’s median price was 6.8 percent higher than the revised $444,630 recorded in November 2014. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling as well as a general change in values. The year-to-year price gain was the highest since June 2015.
“The Federal Reserve’s announcement today to raise the federal funds rate negligibly has long been anticipated and shouldn’t have a significant adverse impact on the housing market since rates are still historically low,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “In fact, it may spur potential home buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to finally jump in now that they see the rates may continue to rise slowly in the next couple of years.”
Other key points from C.A.R.’s November 2015 resale housing report include:
• As sales activity softened in November, there were also fewer active listings compared to the previous year. The number of active listings continued to drop from both the previous month and year. Active listings at the statewide level dropped 11.1 percent from October and decreased 8.8 percent from November 2014.
• The Unsold Inventory Index rose in November for the first time in four months, increasing to 4.2 months from 3.7 months in October but down slightly from 4.3 months in November 2014. The index indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. A six- to seven-month supply is considered typical in a normal market.
• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home increased in November to 37.8 days, compared with 35.4 days in October and 40.5 days in November 2014.
• According to C.A.R.’s newest housing market indicator which measures the sales-to-list price ratio*, properties are generally selling below the list price, except in the San Francisco Bay Area, where a lack of homes for sale is pushing sales prices higher than original asking prices. The statewide measure suggests that homes sold at a median of 98.1 percent of the list price in November, up from 97.4 percent at the same time last year. The Bay Area is the only region where homes are selling above original list prices due to constrained supply with a ratio of 101.4 percent in November, down from 102.2 percent in October and up from 100.6 percent a year ago.
• The average price per square foot** for an existing, single-family home was $235 in November 2015, up from $230 in November 2014. Price per square foot at the state level has been stabilizing in the last few months as the statewide median price began leveling off and averaging an increase of 2.4 percent in the past three months.
• San Francisco had the highest price per square foot in November at $789/sq. ft., followed by San Mateo ($724/sq. ft.), and Santa Clara ($580/sq. ft.). The three counties with the lowest price per square foot in November were Tehama ($112/sq. ft.), Siskiyou ($112/sq. ft.), and Kings ($114/sq. ft.).
• Mortgage rates inched up in November, with the 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaging 3.94 percent, up from 3.80 percent in October but down from 4.0 percent in November 2014, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates also edged up, averaging 2.63 percent in November, up from 2.56 percent in October and up from 2.44 percent in November 2014.
Graphics (click links to open):
• November sales at-a-glance infographic.
• Change in sales by price range.
• Share of sales by price range.
• Sales to active listings ratio.
• Sales to list ratio.
• Price per square foot.
Note: The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state, and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower-end or the upper-end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.
*Sales-to-list price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.
**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 38 counties.
Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 175,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.
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November 2015 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
| November-15 | Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes | Sales | |||||||
| State/Region/County | Nov-15 | Oct-15 | Nov-14 | MTM% Chg | YTY% Chg | MTM% Chg | YTY% Chg | ||
| CA SFH (SAAR) | $475,000 | $475,990 | r | $444,630 | r | -0.2% | 6.8% | -8.4% | -1.6% |
| CA Condo/Townhomes | $398,570 | $391,340 | $370,590 | r | 1.8% | 7.6% | -19.2% | 0.5% | |
| Los Angeles Metropolitan Area | $439,730 | $441,360 | $417,270 | -0.4% | 5.4% | -25.1% | -3.9% | ||
| Inland Empire | $293,220 | $293,090 | $276,950 | 0.0% | 5.9% | -22.6% | -1.4% | ||
| S.F. Bay Area | $791,850 | $790,580 | $734,810 | r | 0.2% | 7.8% | -16.8% | -1.7% | |
| S.F. Bay Area | |||||||||
| Alameda | $736,870 | $711,990 | $670,320 | r | 3.5% | 9.9% | -17.2% | -6.4% | |
| Contra-Costa | $758,930 | $726,400 | $683,910 | r | 4.5% | 11.0% | -22.4% | -3.7% | |
| Marin | $1,180,000 | $1,207,140 | $1,111,110 | -2.2% | 6.2% | -22.4% | -6.2% | ||
| Napa | $678,570 | $664,470 | $625,000 | 2.1% | 8.6% | 44.9% | 22.0% | ||
| San Francisco | $1,323,860 | $1,294,120 | $1,163,790 | r | 2.3% | 13.8% | -24.2% | -10.5% | |
| San Mateo | $1,195,000 | $1,188,940 | $1,092,500 | 0.5% | 9.4% | -10.7% | -6.8% | ||
| Santa Clara | $965,000 | $951,000 | $850,000 | 1.5% | 13.5% | -17.9% | -1.3% | ||
| Solano | $355,510 | $355,420 | $332,020 | 0.0% | 7.1% | -17.7% | 14.8% | ||
| Sonoma | $541,380 | $548,840 | $487,110 | -1.4% | 11.1% | -14.1% | 3.8% | ||
| Southern California | |||||||||
| Los Angeles | $457,870 | $509,570 | $434,070 | -10.1% | 5.5% | -28.3% | -5.5% | ||
| Orange | $711,030 | $704,370 | $689,480 | 0.9% | 3.1% | -19.6% | -5.0% | ||
| Riverside | $337,200 | $334,660 | $320,880 | 0.8% | 5.1% | -23.0% | -1.4% | ||
| San Bernardino | $236,220 | $231,330 | $213,780 | 2.1% | 10.5% | -22.0% | -1.4% | ||
| San Diego | $554,440 | $539,000 | $491,690 | 2.9% | 12.8% | -21.5% | 0.8% | ||
| Ventura | $623,400 | $604,610 | $549,440 | 3.1% | 13.5% | -30.9% | -5.4% | ||
| Central Coast | |||||||||
| Monterey | $512,500 | $486,000 | $460,000 | 5.5% | 11.4% | -18.2% | 11.9% | ||
| San Luis Obispo | $536,970 | $540,480 | $453,950 | -0.6% | 18.3% | -23.0% | 3.9% | ||
| Santa Barbara | $634,610 | $636,360 | $643,290 | -0.3% | -1.3% | -18.7% | -3.3% | ||
| Santa Cruz | $703,750 | $743,750 | $689,500 | -5.4% | 2.1% | -19.2% | 0.8% | ||
| Central Valley | |||||||||
| Fresno | $222,970 | $214,620 | $200,000 | 3.9% | 11.5% | -21.8% | 3.1% | ||
| Glenn | $186,670 | $206,250 | $95,000 | -9.5% | 96.5% | 0.0% | 157.1% | ||
| Kern (Bakersfield) | $213,000 | $210,000 | r | $211,220 | 1.4% | 0.8% | -25.6% | -8.7% | |
| Kings | $181,250 | $183,330 | $192,500 | -1.1% | -5.8% | -21.7% | 14.0% | ||
| Madera | $229,540 | $207,500 | $236,360 | 10.6% | -2.9% | 3.4% | 22.0% | ||
| Merced | $215,000 | $196,250 | $177,650 | 9.6% | 21.0% | -26.2% | -10.2% | ||
| Placer | $398,460 | $394,720 | $369,490 | 0.9% | 7.8% | -24.3% | 11.6% | ||
| Sacramento | $292,100 | $292,150 | $266,260 | 0.0% | 9.7% | -19.4% | 10.9% | ||
| San Benito | $512,500 | $487,500 | $431,000 | 5.1% | 18.9% | -34.7% | 6.7% | ||
| San Joaquin | $292,190 | $278,210 | $249,080 | 5.0% | 17.3% | -34.7% | -2.7% | ||
| Stanislaus | $249,710 | $259,620 | $230,950 | -3.8% | 8.1% | -32.7% | 3.3% | ||
| Tulare | $175,000 | $190,000 | $187,000 | -7.9% | -6.4% | -29.1% | -7.0% | ||
| Other Counties in California | |||||||||
| Amador | $280,000 | $255,000 | $231,250 | 9.8% | 21.1% | -20.0% | -3.4% | ||
| Butte | $238,540 | $265,240 | $241,910 | -10.1% | -1.4% | -27.2% | 14.9% | ||
| Calaveras | $243,750 | $243,480 | $230,550 | r | 0.1% | 5.7% | -21.4% | 39.7% | |
| Del Norte | $258,330 | $246,870 | $132,500 | r | 4.6% | 95.0% | -51.9% | -13.3% | |
| El Dorado | $392,680 | $378,070 | $374,540 | 3.9% | 4.8% | -25.5% | -3.0% | ||
| Humboldt | $264,710 | $258,090 | $262,500 | 2.6% | 0.8% | -36.4% | -7.9% | ||
| Lake | $256,670 | $211,360 | $186,670 | 21.4% | 37.5% | 27.5% | 51.7% | ||
| Mariposa | $283,330 | $250,000 | $250,000 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||
| Mendocino | $360,000 | $325,000 | $332,140 | 10.8% | 8.4% | -12.5% | 13.5% | ||
| Nevada | $346,000 | $336,960 | $309,370 | 2.7% | 11.8% | -33.6% | -2.2% | ||
| Plumas | $232,140 | $260,000 | $200,000 | r | -10.7% | 16.1% | -8.8% | -3.1% | |
| Shasta | $230,300 | $236,540 | $210,610 | r | -2.6% | 9.4% | -28.8% | 0.0% | |
| Siskiyou | $165,000 | $186,000 | $172,500 | -11.3% | -4.3% | -32.7% | 0.0% | ||
| Sutter | $256,670 | $252,500 | $218,180 | 1.7% | 17.6% | -21.1% | 15.4% | ||
| Tehama | $155,000 | $190,000 | $175,000 | -18.4% | -11.4% | -18.4% | 6.9% | ||
| Tuolumne | $238,460 | $252,500 | $220,000 | -5.6% | 8.4% | -1.6% | 10.7% | ||
| Yolo | $402,170 | $378,380 | $343,180 | 6.3% | 17.2% | -23.2% | -6.0% | ||
| Yuba | $204,690 | $219,050 | $190,000 | -6.6% | 7.7% | -10.6% | -4.8% | ||
r = revised
November 2015 County Unsold Inventory and Time on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
| November-15 | Unsold Inventory Index | Median Time on Market | ||||||||
| State/Region/County | Nov-15 | Oct-15 | Nov-14 | Nov-15 | Oct-15 | Nov-14 | ||||
| CA SFH (SAAR) | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.3 | r | 37.8 | 35.4 | 40.5 | r | ||
| CA Condo/Townhomes | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | r | 34.0 | 31.7 | 37.8 | r | ||
| Los Angeles Metro Area | 4.9 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 53.4 | 50.7 | 53.5 | ||||
| Inland Empire | 5.7 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 56.1 | 52.0 | 56.0 | ||||
| S.F. Bay Area | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | r | 24.7 | 23.4 | 25.2 | r | ||
| S.F. Bay Area | ||||||||||
| Alameda | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | r | 19.2 | 19.5 | 21.0 | r | ||
| Contra-Costa | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | r | 21.3 | 20.9 | 22.7 | r | ||
| Marin | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 40.1 | 32.3 | 40.3 | ||||
| Napa | 4.3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 63.9 | 57.7 | 56.5 | ||||
| San Francisco | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 22.5 | 21.2 | 23.8 | r | |||
| San Mateo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 19.8 | 18.6 | 21.3 | ||||
| Santa Clara | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 21.9 | 20.6 | 21.7 | ||||
| Solano | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 45.9 | 41.1 | 46.0 | ||||
| Sonoma | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 50.4 | 48.2 | 50.7 | ||||
| Southern California | ||||||||||
| Los Angeles | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 47.3 | 45.6 | 47.8 | ||||
| Orange | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 61.4 | 56.7 | 61.2 | ||||
| Riverside | 6.2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 56.5 | 53.6 | 57.2 | ||||
| San Bernardino | 5.0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 55.5 | 49.2 | 54.0 | ||||
| San Diego | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 25.4 | 25.0 | 28.1 | ||||
| Ventura | 5.0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 59.5 | 58.8 | 66.6 | ||||
| Central Coast | ||||||||||
| Monterey | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 28.3 | 34.7 | 34.9 | ||||
| San Luis Obispo | 4.8 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 36.1 | 40.3 | 49.9 | ||||
| Santa Barbara | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 49.5 | 39.5 | 45.8 | ||||
| Santa Cruz | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 37.0 | 25.9 | 26.5 | ||||
| Central Valley | ||||||||||
| Fresno | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 28.2 | 29.5 | 31.2 | ||||
| Glenn | 4.0 | 4.6 | 12.0 | 70.7 | 45.5 | 45.5 | ||||
| Kern (Bakersfield) | 4.9 | 4.0 | r | 4.3 | r | 38.0 | 29.0 | 36.0 | r | |
| Kings | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 33.9 | 24.1 | 29.5 | ||||
| Madera | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 78.1 | 54.9 | 80.3 | ||||
| Merced | 5.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 52.8 | 34.0 | 46.8 | ||||
| Placer | 3.5 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 28.6 | 27.4 | 28.4 | ||||
| Sacramento | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 23.0 | 23.5 | 26.5 | ||||
| San Benito | 4.1 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 40.7 | 25.5 | 26.6 | ||||
| San Joaquin | 4.1 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 24.8 | 23.9 | 27.7 | ||||
| Stanislaus | 4.0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 26.0 | 24.8 | 25.0 | ||||
| Tulare | 6.2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 38.8 | 31.0 | 34.5 | r | |||
| Other Counties in California | ||||||||||
| Amador | 7.5 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 61.0 | 93.1 | 47.9 | ||||
| Butte | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.7 | ||||
| Calaveras | 5.3 | 5.3 | 8.8 | r | 87.4 | 67.2 | 74.3 | r | ||
| Del Norte | 11.5 | 5.8 | 11.3 | r | 126.4 | 123.1 | 81.3 | r | ||
| El Dorado | 5.3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 53.8 | 51.3 | 54.8 | ||||
| Humboldt | 4.8 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 54.2 | 49.7 | 59.1 | ||||
| Lake | 4.6 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 116.8 | 76.4 | 107.9 | ||||
| Mariposa | 10.4 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 105.5 | 91.0 | 125.8 | ||||
| Mendocino | 7.9 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 68.3 | 72.6 | 101.9 | ||||
| Nevada | 5.1 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 47.2 | 47.1 | 58.0 | r | |||
| Plumas | 8.4 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 125.8 | 124.1 | 130.7 | r | |||
| Shasta | 7.6 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 55.7 | 33.9 | 51.3 | ||||
| Siskiyou | 7.9 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 79.1 | 87.1 | 77.9 | ||||
| Sutter | 3.8 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 38.9 | 25.0 | 55.9 | ||||
| Tehama | 6.4 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 53.8 | 55.9 | 43.1 | ||||
| Tuolumne | 6.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 43.9 | 51.1 | 70.7 | ||||
| Yolo | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 24.9 | 24.9 | 36.1 | ||||
| Yuba | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 25.4 | 26.2 | 31.0 | ||||
r = revised
