C.A.R. releases its California Housing Market Forecast for 2013
California housing market to continue improvement; lack of inventory to hamper sales
LOS ANGELES, CA – October 3, 2012 – (RealEstateRama) — California’s housing market will continue to recover in 2013, as home sales are forecast to increase for the third consecutive year and the median price to rise for the second straight year, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2013 California Housing Market Forecast,” released today.
The C.A.R. forecast sees sales gaining 1.3 percent next year to reach 530,000 units, up from the projected 2012 sales figure of 523,300 homes sold. Sales in 2012 will be up 5.1 percent from the 497,900 existing, single-family homes sold in 2011.
“The market has improved moderately over the past year, and we expect that to continue into 2013,” said C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold. “Sales would be even higher if inventory were less constrained in REO-dominated markets, particularly in the Central Valley and Inland Empire, where there is an extreme shortage of available homes. Sales will be stronger in higher-priced areas, where there are more equity properties and a somewhat greater availability of homes for sale.”
“Housing affordability has never been stronger – with record-low interest rates and favorable home prices, combining to create a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy a home in California,” said Arnold.
C.A.R.’s forecast projected growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product of 2.3 percent in 2013, after a gain of 2 percent in 2012. With job growth of 1.6 percent in California, the state’s unemployment rate should decrease to 9.9 percent in 2013 from 11.7 percent in 2011 and 10.7 percent in 2012.
The average for 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates will edge up to 4 percent after six consecutive years of declines, but will still remain historically low.
The statewide median home price is forecast to increase a moderate 5.7 percent to $335,000 in 2013. Following a decrease in 2011, the California median home price will climb a projected 10.9 percent in 2012 to $317,000.
“The housing market momentum which began earlier this year will continue into 2013,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Pent-up demand from first-time buyers will compete with investors and all-cash offers on lower-priced properties, while multiple offers and aggressive bidding will continue to be the norm in mid- to upper-price range homes.”
“The actions of underwater homeowners will play an important role in housing inventory next year, with rising home prices inducing some to stay put and others to list and move forward,” she said.
“The wildcards for 2013 include federal, monetary and housing policies, state and local government finances, housing supply, and the actions of underwater homeowners – not to mention the strength of the overall economic recovery,” Appleton-Young continued.
Appleton-Young will present an expanded forecast Wednesday afternoon during CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2012 (http://expo.car.org), running from Oct. 2-4 at the Anaheim Convention Center in Anaheim, Calif. The trade show attracts nearly 6,500 attendees and is the largest state real estate trade show in the nation.
Also, don’t miss “Housing Market Trends: What’s Next for Real Estate,” during CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2012. C.A.R.’s Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young and C.A.R. Senior Economist Selma Hepp will moderate a panel of renowned experts as they discuss future market trends and front- and center issues facing the market and REALTORS® next year. The panel is scheduled to be held Thursday, Oct. 4, from 2 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. at the Anaheim Convention Center.
2013 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012f | 2013f | |
| SFH Resales (000s) | 441.8 | 546.9 | 492.3 | 497.9 | 523.3 | 530.0 |
| % Change | 27.3% | 23.8% | -10.0% | 1.1% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| Median Price ($000s) | $348.5 | $275.0 | $305.0 | $286.0 | $317.0 | $335.0 |
| % Change | -37.8% | -21.1% | 10.9% | -6.2% | 10.9% | 5.7% |
| 30-Yr FRM | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% |
| 1-Yr ARM | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
f = forecast
Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 100 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with more than 155,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.
